The hottest power industry has digested the rising

Power industry: the rising factors of coal have been digested and the inflection point is expected to form

power industry:

the rising factors of coal have been digested and the inflection point is expected to form

the power sector has strong defensive function and strong resistance to decline in the weak market. We believe that the leading stocks among them deserve special attention

in the stable demand of the power industry, the newly elected chairman guoxinqi will discuss the development of the industry with you. The growth rate of electricity consumption in China has maintained a double-digit high-speed growth for six consecutive years. However, after entering 2008, due to the recession of the U.S. economy, the export of one of the troika of China's economy decreased, coupled with macro-control and energy conservation and consumption reduction, which reduced the demand for electricity. It is predicted that the growth rate of national power demand from 2008 to 2010 will be 12.5%, 11% and 9% respectively

coal prices rose sharply, and the profits of the thermal power industry fell. In 2008, the contract price of thermal coal increased by 10%-15%, and the annual industrial profit is expected to decline by about 40%. The market hopes to launch the third coal power linkage, but under the premise of accelerating inflation in the first quarter, it is expected that the probability of raising electricity prices in the power industry in the first half of the year is very small, and the possibility of loss making power generation enterprises applying for government subsidies is relatively large

the industry valuation is reasonable, and there is limited room for the implementation of the "leader" plan for energy efficiency and water efficiency in key industries. At present, the dynamic P/E ratio of Listed Companies in the power industry is 22 times, which is slightly higher than the estimated P/E ratio of the power sector in the international mature market of 15-17 times. However, considering that we are an emerging market, coupled with the factor of price adjustment, we believe that the dynamic P/E ratio of the power sector of 20085 and the building structure of 20 times a year can be maintained

the output value is more than 30% (600billion yuan). At present, the share price of power stocks in the market has reflected the impact of high costs caused by the rising price of coal to a certain extent. Coupled with the factors of electricity price adjustment, it is still worth continuing to be optimistic in the future. It is suggested to focus on Yangtze Power, a leading hydropower company, and Guodian power, whose performance is relatively insensitive to coal prices and has a large space for asset injection. (zhanghaidong)