The hottest power gap is huge. How should automobi

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With a huge power gap, how should automobile enterprises deal with the power shortage this summer?

"meet the peak of summer", a familiar word for power enterprises, but in the summer of 2008, with this word, it may be a long lost power shortage

on June 3, the State Electricity Regulatory Commission held a video conference to celebrate the summer peak. Affected by factors such as power coal supply and climate, this year, only in the business areas of the State Power Corporation (26 provinces), the maximum power gap in summer will reach 10million kW

the power supply and demand situation in the business areas of Southern Power Company (Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, Yunnan and Guizhou provinces) is more severe. It is expected that the power gap in the peak period of summer power consumption will reach 8million kW, including 5.5 million kW in Guangdong, 1million kW in Guizhou and 1.5 million kW in Yunnan

once there is a regional power gap, power rationing is inevitable. For the purpose of ensuring people's normal life and social stability, various production enterprises, as large power users, are undoubtedly the primary goal of "power rationing"

according to the China Electricity Regulatory Commission, the provinces with obvious power gap this summer are mainly concentrated in East China, North China and South China, which are also the main bases for the production of parts and complete vehicles in China's automobile industry. The automobile and parts enterprise clusters in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta will inevitably repeat the nightmare of 2004 this summer

recurrence of power shortage

according to the lagging law of capacity construction in the power industry, after the power shortage in 2004, a large number of generating units were launched. The gradual investment of these generating capacities should have reduced the possibility of power shortage. However, in 2008, many factors have aggravated the contradiction between power supply and demand

the first is the growth rate of power demand. According to the prediction made by the Electricity Regulatory Commission and the State Electricity Regulatory Commission, the year-on-year growth rate of national power consumption this summer will be about 12%. This summer, the power load across the country will also maintain a double-digit growth, of which the maximum load of North China Power in summer will reach 127 million KW, an increase of 12.7% year-on-year

the reason is obvious. In addition to the continuous economic growth, the opening of the Olympic Games has also increased the demand for electricity, which leads to the inevitable seasonal power gap

in terms of power generation, the insufficient supply of power coal has become an important factor in the severe power supply situation. The iron content difference of samples taken at different intervals is severe. According to the latest data provided by State Grid Corporation of China, as of the end of May 2008, the coal inventory of direct supply power plants was 20.87 million tons, down about 6.17 million tons from the same period last year. As of May 31, 41 coal shortages have been shut down nationwide, involving a power generation capacity of 6.97 million KW

in January this year, Xiao Peng, deputy general manager of China Southern Power Company, revealed that the five provinces and regions of China Southern Power Company shut down 10.3 million KW due to lack of coal, including 4.2 million kW in Guizhou, 3.8 million kW in Yunnan and 2.3 million kW in Guangxi

the rise in the price of power coal has also increased the cost of power generation enterprises. It is understood that coal costs account for about 70% of the production costs of thermal power enterprises in China. Under the pressure of the sharp rise in coal prices, the power generation losses of the five major power generation groups directly under the central government increased month by month from January to April 2008. Shaanxi, a coal producing province, has asked local coal mines not to raise the price of electric coal before September 15, that is, during the summer peak period

in addition, the Wenchuan earthquake on May 12 also affected the balance of power supply and demand. In terms of power generation, the power supply has been reduced due to the impact of hydropower and coal mine disasters. With the post disaster reconstruction, the power demand in Sichuan has also increased. According to the data of the State Electricity Regulatory Commission, the entire Sichuan region was affected by the earthquake, losing 4million kW of power generation capacity, while the power coal production capacity fell, which had a certain impact on power supply and demand

as a province rich in hydropower resources, Sichuan generally undertakes the task of power transmission of about 1.5 million kW in wet seasons. However, after the earthquake, due to the damage of hydropower dams or potential safety hazards in Sichuan, the hydropower generation capacity decreased, and it may be necessary to send 2million kW from central China to Sichuan

according to preliminary statistics, the earthquake affected 255 mines in Sichuan, involving a production capacity of 5.28 million tons, accounting for 6.5% of the approved coal production capacity of Sichuan Province. Design vehicles such as Yingxiu and Ya'an provide neutral balance turning characteristics, minimum shaking and low 7. The noise, vibration and irregularity of the shoulder riding method and other areas rich in hydropower resources have also stopped generating electricity because of the dam damage and the impact of hydropower units after the earthquake. At present, in addition to external dispatching, only some local thermal power units can operate in the power supply in Sichuan

dilemma under the opportunity

in the face of such a tense situation, after the teleconference of the State Electricity Regulatory Commission, local electricity regulatory bureaus (offices) also held meetings in succession to find solutions

in the subsequent peak summer meeting, Zhejiang Province made it clear that during the peak summer this year, the largest power gap in Zhejiang is about 3million kW, and the province will once again face seasonal, seasonal and regional power supply tension. Demand management and outsourcing power will become the main measures to solve the power measures

such a statement by the power sector is bound to bring a dilemma to automobile enterprises. On the one hand, strengthening demand management means that the requirements for production enterprises are increased. Either the government cuts off power to enterprises to ensure the supply of domestic electricity, or puts forward higher requirements for enterprise power management and energy conservation and emission reduction. The consequences of these two factors for automobile enterprises are either the impact of production capacity supply or the rise of production costs. In today's fierce market competition environment, they will increase the coping pressure of enterprises

on the other hand, for developed regions such as Guangdong, Shanghai and Zhejiang, it is possible to purchase electricity because of the social benefits of enterprise concentration. However, as an emergency measure, the price of electricity purchased from other provinces is often higher than the average selling price of the province

in previous years, the government often considered the cost pressure of enterprises and digested this part of the cost within the power companies. However, in the face of the general loss situation of power enterprises under the high coal price this year, whether this intensified "price inversion" can continue to be in doubt, which also brings the possibility of rising production costs to the automobile enterprises

compared with the market changes in previous years, the opening of the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games has made automobile enterprises face an embarrassing situation in the arrangement of production cycle. According to the prediction of insiders, due to the implementation of policies such as single and even number restrictions during the Olympic Games, part of the consumption capacity of the Beijing Automotive market is actually suppressed. In addition, in September after the Olympic Games, it is the traditional "golden nine and silver ten" sales peak season. After entering September, the auto market will surely usher in a round of explosive growth

such peak sales may be limited to Beijing, but Beijing alone accounts for nearly 10% of the national auto sales. For auto manufacturers, such a market should of course be firmly in hand to prepare for a possible market outbreak in advance. From the perspective of production scheduling cycle, it seems to be a big question mark whether auto enterprises, which are bound to be restricted during the peak power consumption throughout the summer, can have enough capacity to cope with the "golden nine silver ten" in 2008. Looking back on the last serious power shortage in 2004, Shanghai Volkswagen, Shanghai General Motors and DPCA stopped production, and the production cycles of Geely and NAC were completely disrupted. The supply cycle was extended by more than 30%. The "five starts and two stops" and even the "three starts and four stops" became a common phenomenon in various automobile enterprises

although in this power shortage, all enterprises have learned how to deal with similar emergencies, such as Guangzhou Honda's "flexible management" and other newer and more scientific production management models have also played a positive role, in the face of the power shortage caused by various factors in 2008 and the upcoming market opportunities, how to survive the power shortage smoothly while coping with the market demand will be in the next three months, It has become the biggest problem for Chinese automobile enterprises. (Guobo)

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